OPEC+ postpones key review for 2027 oil production quotas

Friday 02 - 18:15

By: Azzat Manal

OPEC+ postpones key review for 2027 oil production quotas

OPEC+ has postponed a key review of its members’ maximum sustainable oil production capacity, a process that will help determine production baselines and quotas for 2027. The assessment was originally expected to be completed by the end of September but is now projected to be finalized by mid-November, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

The delay comes as the conflict involving Iran has disrupted projects designed to expand oil production capacity across parts of the Middle East. The resulting uncertainty has made it more difficult to establish how much crude some producers will realistically be able to pump in the coming years.

The capacity assessment was commissioned after OPEC+ agreed that maximum sustainable production capacity would serve as an important reference for establishing members’ 2027 production baselines. The group formally reaffirmed the importance of completing the assessment at its June 2026 ministerial meeting.

US consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton is conducting the assessment for most participating countries, while Russia, Iran and Venezuela are subject to separate arrangements because of sanctions and other restrictions. Some members have also yet to provide all the data required to complete the evaluation, adding another layer of uncertainty to the process.

The review carries significant weight because production capacity figures can influence negotiations over future quotas. Countries whose assessed capacity increases could seek higher production baselines, while producers with limited capacity may face pressure to accept lower targets.

The issue is particularly sensitive for members that have invested heavily in expanding their oil infrastructure. Iraq, for example, has sought greater recognition of its production potential, while the United Arab Emirates has previously pushed for quotas that better reflect its expanded capacity. The UAE left OPEC in May 2026, while Iraq has discussed the possibility of following a similar path.

OPEC+ has meanwhile continued to manage production levels through regular meetings. In June, the organization and its non-OPEC partners reaffirmed existing production arrangements through the end of 2026 and stressed the importance of market stability and compliance with agreed targets.

The delayed assessment is expected to give OPEC+ additional time to examine the new capacity estimates before its ministerial meeting scheduled for November 29. The results could become an important reference point in negotiations over how oil production targets will be distributed among members in 2027.