OPEC+ is expected to maintain its oil policy despite market turbulence

Sunday 06 September 2026 - 10:03

Meeting on Sunday, the leading oil-producing countries are expected to extend their current production guidelines for October. As the conflict with Iran disrupts energy flows in the Strait of Hormuz, the organization now faces a market where its decisions carry less weight than before.

OPEC+ is not expected to alter its short-term production strategy. The ministers from member countries are likely to maintain the current arrangements for the month of October.

This meeting comes amid a particularly unstable context for the oil market. The ongoing conflict with Iran disrupts exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's main maritime routes for hydrocarbons. This situation mechanically reduces OPEC+'s ability to influence prices solely through its production volume decisions.

No changes expected for October

Sunday's discussions should therefore lead to a continuation of the current policy. For producers, the immediate priority is to finalize a new distribution of quotas before addressing the next steps in their supply strategy.

This issue has become particularly sensitive within the group. Determining the production levels of each member is a complex exercise, given the disparities between national capacities, revenue goals, and the collective desire to maintain a certain market balance.

Maintaining the status quo appears to be a way to buy time before tackling these more delicate questions.

The conflict with Iran changes the game

However, the geopolitical situation significantly complicates OPEC+'s traditional role. The conflict involving Iran directly affects oil exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, creating a disruption that is not solely dependent on the decisions of the producers gathered within the expanded cartel.

In this context, a change in quotas may have a limited effect on prices if price movements are primarily determined by risks associated with transportation and exports.

This evolution marks a significant shift from periods when an OPEC+ decision on production could provoke an immediate and substantial market reaction.

A gradually reduced influence

The organization must now contend with a more fragmented energy environment. Geopolitical tensions, logistical disruptions, and the evolving strategies of major buyers are altering traditional price formation mechanisms.

The war in Iran accentuates this trend and contributes to reducing OPEC+'s direct influence on the global market. The group's decisions remain important, but they no longer necessarily determine the direction of prices.

At the same time, China is playing an increasingly significant role in the balance of the global oil market. Its demand, sourcing choices, and ability to adapt its purchases to new international conditions are becoming more critical.

A meeting under high pressure

Sunday's meeting therefore goes beyond the simple question of production levels for October. It comes at a time when OPEC+ must rethink how its decisions fit into a market increasingly subject to powerful external factors.

The group is expected to prioritize continuity in the immediate term. However, behind this status quo looms a major strategic question: how to maintain a decisive influence on the market when geopolitical tensions, trade flows, and decisions by major consumers may now weigh more heavily than collectively decided production adjustments?

For OPEC+, the challenge in the coming months will be to respond to this new reality without further undermining its ability to coordinate the main global producers.