OPEC+ expected to keep November oil output targets unchanged

22:45

By: Azzat Manal

OPEC+ expected to keep November oil output targets unchanged

Oil-producing countries in the OPEC+ alliance are expected to leave their production targets unchanged for November when seven key members meet virtually on Sunday, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The meeting comes as the group continues to assess disrupted global energy flows and prepare for negotiations over production levels for 2027.

The meeting will bring together Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. These seven countries have been holding regular consultations on production levels and market conditions as OPEC+ gradually adjusts its supply policy after several rounds of voluntary cuts introduced in previous years.

The expected decision would extend the pause already adopted for October. At its September 6 meeting, the seven countries agreed to maintain September production requirements for October, with the next meeting scheduled for October 4.

OPEC+ has spent much of 2026 gradually unwinding part of the voluntary production reductions introduced in 2023. The 1.65 million-barrel-per-day reduction announced in April 2023 was progressively phased out, with the alliance completing that process in September. However, other production restrictions remain in place for several members through the end of 2026.

Despite the increase in official production targets, actual output has remained below the levels permitted under the quotas. Reuters reported that the seven countries produced around 25 million barrels per day in August, about 5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, as disruptions continued to affect exports from the Gulf region.

The situation has become particularly important for Gulf producers seeking to restore exports after months of disruption linked to the conflict involving Iran. Although shipments have begun to recover, logistical constraints and uncertainty surrounding regional security continue to affect the physical oil market.

The decision to maintain targets would also give OPEC+ additional time to assess the production capacity of its members before determining future quotas. The alliance is preparing to establish new production baselines for 2027, with a capacity assessment expected to play an important role in those negotiations.

Oil markets are meanwhile facing a complex combination of supply disruptions, geopolitical risks and changing demand expectations. OPEC recently lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day, while the International Energy Agency has projected a much sharper decline in global oil supply because of disruptions in the Middle East and the Gulf.

Brent crude has also remained elevated amid the uncertain supply outlook. Reuters reported that Brent for November delivery reached $103.19 a barrel on September 30, while the December contract stood near $97.78. The market has been particularly sensitive to developments affecting Gulf exports and shipping routes.

For OPEC+, keeping November targets unchanged would therefore represent a cautious approach while the alliance monitors actual production, export conditions and the broader balance between supply and demand. The focus is expected to increasingly shift toward the negotiations over 2027 quotas as members seek to reconcile their production capacity with market conditions.