Natural disaster losses fall by more than a third to $100 billion in first half of 2026

Tuesday 11 August 2026 - 10:05

By: Sahili Aya

Natural disaster losses fall by more than a third to $100 billion in first half of 2026

Economic losses caused by natural disasters fell sharply during the first half of 2026, reaching an estimated $100 billion, according to an initial assessment by Swiss Re.

The figure represents a decline of more than one-third compared with the same period in 2025 and stands about 10% below the average recorded over the past decade. Despite the improvement, the Swiss reinsurer is warning that the picture could change significantly during the second half of the year.

The estimate covers the economic damage generated by major natural catastrophes and provides an early indication of the financial burden facing insurers and affected economies.

Insured losses reach their lowest level since 2020

The decline was also reflected in insurance claims. Insurers are estimated to have incurred around $42 billion in natural catastrophe losses during the first six months of the year.

According to Swiss Re, that represents the lowest first-half figure since 2020. It is also 16% below the 10-year average.

The contrast with 2025 is particularly significant. During the first half of last year, insured catastrophe losses reached approximately $91 billion, making the latest estimate less than half that level.

Hurricanes and wildfires remain major risks

Swiss Re's relatively positive assessment for the first half does not necessarily point to a quieter year overall.

The reinsurer has cautioned that the second half of 2026 could bring substantially greater losses, particularly as the peak periods for hurricanes and wildfires approach.

These events can generate extremely high costs in a short period of time, affecting residential and commercial property, infrastructure and business activity while placing significant pressure on insurance markets.

Lower losses do not eliminate long-term risk

The decline in catastrophe-related losses offers some relief to insurers following the unusually high costs recorded in 2025. However, the figures should not be interpreted as evidence that the underlying risks facing the insurance industry have diminished.

Extreme weather events can produce highly volatile annual results, meaning a relatively moderate first half can be followed by a much more expensive second half.

For reinsurers such as Swiss Re, the challenge is therefore not simply to assess the damage already recorded but also to anticipate the potential financial impact of major disasters still to come.

With hurricane and wildfire risks remaining elevated later in the year, the final 2026 loss bill could ultimately differ considerably from the mid-year estimate.