Morocco growth set to reach 5% as agriculture rebounds

Thursday 04 June 2026 - 13:19

By: Dakir Madiha

Morocco growth set to reach 5% as agriculture rebounds

Morocco’s economy is expected to expand by 5% in 2026 after an estimated growth rate of 4.6% in 2025, supported by a recovery in agricultural production and continued investment in major infrastructure projects. The latest economic outlook projects that growth will moderate to 3.9% in 2027 but remain above recent levels despite increasing uncertainty in the global economy.

Economic activity in 2025 benefited from stronger household consumption and investment. Lower inflation, improved consumer confidence, and large public infrastructure programs contributed to the expansion. Authorities have continued to channel resources into transport, industrial, and development projects aimed at supporting long-term economic growth and competitiveness.

Agriculture is expected to play a central role in the 2026 acceleration. After several years of drought, substantial winter rainfall has replenished reservoirs across the country. Agricultural output is forecast to increase by around 15% during 2026 before returning to more normal levels the following year. Infrastructure spending is also expected to stimulate manufacturing and construction, reinforcing growth across multiple sectors.

Despite the positive outlook, Morocco remains exposed to risks linked to imported energy. Around 90% of the country’s energy needs come from external sources, leaving the economy vulnerable to global price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions. Higher energy costs are expected to push inflation up to 3.2% in 2026 from an average of 0.7% in 2025, before easing to 1.4% in 2027. Consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, although higher prices may slow its pace of growth.

Regional developments in the Middle East could also influence Morocco’s economic performance. Disruptions affecting fertilizer exports from competing producers may create opportunities for the country’s phosphate industry. However, a prolonged conflict could interrupt supplies of ammonia and sulfur imported from Gulf countries, which are essential for domestic fertilizer production.

Morocco’s diversified economy and strong phosphate sector provide important buffers against external shocks. Phosphate fertilizers accounted for 21% of export revenues in 2025, helping offset rising energy import costs. Exports are projected to strengthen further over the next two years due to improving external demand and continued industrial expansion. Nevertheless, the current account deficit is expected to widen to 3.1% of gross domestic product in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027 as import costs increase.

The labor market is forecast to improve gradually. Unemployment fell from 13.4% in 2024 to 13% in 2025 and is expected to decline further in 2026. However, unemployment remains elevated among young people and women, reaching 37.2% and 20.5% respectively, underscoring ongoing structural challenges.

Monetary policy is expected to remain stable. Bank Al-Maghrib is projected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% throughout 2026 and 2027 following the end of its easing cycle. Public finances are also forecast to improve, with the budget deficit expected to stabilize at around 3% of GDP after declining in recent years. Higher government revenues and tax reforms have strengthened fiscal performance.

The OECD called for faster structural reforms to support sustainable and inclusive growth. Key priorities include reducing informality, improving productivity, expanding childcare services, strengthening vocational training, increasing labor market flexibility, promoting competition, tackling corruption in public procurement, and accelerating the transition toward renewable energy. Reducing dependence on imported energy is viewed as a critical step toward improving economic resilience and energy security.