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Majority in EU’s largest nations support UK rejoining, but not on old terms
A decade after the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, a new YouGov survey reveals that most people in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain would support Britain’s return to the bloc. However, this support largely depends on the UK accepting full EU membership terms, rather than retaining its pre-Brexit opt-outs.
Support for UK’s return varies across conditions
The survey, conducted across six western European countries, found that a majority in the EU’s four largest member states back the idea of the UK rejoining. Support ranged from 51% in Italy to 63% in Germany. Yet, when asked whether Britain should rejoin under its previous special terms—such as staying outside the eurozone and the Schengen area—support dropped significantly.
Only 20-22% of respondents in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain felt the UK should be allowed to return under the same conditions it enjoyed before Brexit. A majority, 58-62%, believed the UK would need to fully adopt key EU policies to rejoin.
The poll also explored views on hypothetical scenarios. If Britain insisted on retaining its opt-outs, 33-36% of respondents deemed this acceptable, while 41-52% opposed such an arrangement.
Shifts in UK public opinion
In the UK, attitudes toward rejoining the EU have shifted notably since Brexit. While 54% of Britons expressed support for rejoining when asked without conditions, this figure dropped to 36% if rejoining required giving up previous opt-outs. Opposition under these terms rose to 45%.
Among pro-EU voters, support for rejoining with full membership terms remained strong but diminished compared to the general question. Around 60% of Remain voters and 58% of Labour voters backed rejoining without opt-outs, though these figures were 20-30 percentage points lower than their responses to the broader question.
Eurosceptic voters showed far less enthusiasm. Support for rejoining without opt-outs halved among Conservative voters (from 25% to 12%) and Leave voters (from 21% to 10%).
Denmark and Scotland stand out
Denmark, one of the EU member states with opt-outs in major policy areas, emerged as an outlier in the survey. Danish respondents were the most supportive of the UK returning to the EU, with 72% in favor. They were also more open than larger EU countries to the UK retaining its previous opt-outs, with 43% backing such a scenario.
The survey also highlighted strong support across all five continental European countries—ranging from 63% to 75%—for an independent Scotland joining the EU.
Broader implications
Although the poll suggests growing public support for the UK rejoining the EU, significant obstacles remain. The UK’s Labour-led government, which recently negotiated a “reset” in relations with the bloc, has shown little indication of pursuing renewed membership. Diverging public opinions on the terms of rejoining further complicate the issue, both within the UK and across Europe.
The findings highlight a deep divide in public sentiment about the future of UK-EU relations, underscoring the complexities of any potential reintegration into the bloc.
