Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts as Middle East shipping risks persist

Tuesday 08 September 2026 - 11:31

By: Azzat Manal

Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts as Middle East shipping risks persist

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing the possibility that disruptions to shipping and energy supplies in the Middle East could continue into next year.

The investment bank now expects Brent crude to reach $85 a barrel in December 2026, while US West Texas Intermediate is projected at $80. Both forecasts are $5 higher than its previous estimates. For 2027, Goldman Sachs has raised its average projections to $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI.

The bank warned that prices could rise significantly further under a more severe supply scenario. Brent could exceed $120 a barrel if Gulf oil production in 2027 remains around four million barrels per day below pre-war levels. Under Goldman Sachs’ baseline scenario, the expected supply shortfall is considerably smaller, at around 500,000 barrels per day.

A sharp decline in prices remains possible, however, if Gulf producers restore output more rapidly. Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent could fall to between $60 and $70 a barrel in 2027 if average Gulf production rises by approximately one million barrels per day above pre-war levels.

The revised outlook comes as crude prices approach a six-week high amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the region. Concerns over possible attacks on energy infrastructure and oil and gas-related facilities have increased uncertainty over future supplies, while restrictions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed maritime traffic.

Commodity-carrying vessels have averaged about 10 crossings a day over the past 10 days, the lowest level recorded since May, according to the figures cited by the bank. Any prolonged disruption to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes could have significant consequences for global oil markets.

Goldman Sachs has also recommended that investors consider strategies to hedge against geopolitical risks. The bank pointed to European diesel futures spreads between March and December 2027, which could potentially rise sharply if refinery disruptions in Russia or the Middle East persist.

The latest forecasts underscore how closely oil markets remain tied to geopolitical developments. While supply disruptions could push prices higher in the short term, a recovery in production or easing tensions could reverse those gains and place renewed downward pressure on crude prices.