Global trade continues to expand despite rising price pressures, UNCTAD says

Thursday 23 July 2026 - 07:51

By: Azzat Manal

Global trade continues to expand despite rising price pressures, UNCTAD says

Global trade maintained its growth momentum during the first half of 2026, supported largely by strong demand for high-technology products and services, according to the latest Global Trade Update published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The report estimates that global merchandise trade reached approximately $13.7 trillion during the first six months of the year, representing an increase of 12.5% compared with the same period in 2025.

Trade in services also recorded significant growth, rising by around 10.5% and contributing nearly $2 trillion to global commercial activity. The overall performance puts international trade on course for another annual record, although the report warns that the expansion is becoming increasingly uneven.

UNCTAD noted that part of the increase in trade values reflects higher prices rather than a comparable rise in the volume of goods exchanged. Disruptions affecting maritime transport, concerns over energy supplies and geopolitical tensions have contributed to higher costs across energy, shipping, logistics and manufacturing.

Commodity prices increased by approximately 3.6% during the first quarter and by around 5% in the second quarter, driven mainly by more expensive energy and selected raw materials.

East Asia emerged as one of the main engines of global trade growth, supported by strong export and import performances in China and South Korea. Meanwhile, several other Asian economies recorded weaker trade activity, while imports in Africa and the Americas grew faster than their exports.

The region also played an important role in South-South trade. Excluding East Asia, trade among developing economies contracted, while global trade imbalances widened amid a larger Chinese surplus and a reduction in the US trade deficit.

Technology-related sectors remained among the strongest performers. Demand linked to artificial intelligence, digital technologies and electric mobility helped boost trade in critical minerals, semiconductors, batteries, information and communications technology products and electric vehicles.

According to the report, trade in critical minerals increased by about 38%, while semiconductor trade rose by 25%. Battery trade expanded by 15%, information and communications technology products by 14% and electric vehicles by 11%.

However, not all sectors benefited from the same momentum. Trade in chemicals, iron and steel and some equipment linked to renewable energy technologies declined. Fossil fuel trade increased largely as a result of higher prices rather than a substantial expansion in physical volumes.

UNCTAD expects global trade to continue growing, but warns that the outlook remains vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and uncertainty surrounding trade policies. The organization also highlighted the growing risk of an uneven recovery, with some regions and technology-driven industries benefiting more strongly than others.