Global oil demand could fall by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026
Global oil demand could decline by around 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026 compared with the previous year, according to Russell Hardy, chief executive of global energy trading company Vitol.
Hardy made the forecast during the Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore, as geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt crude flows and create uncertainty across global energy markets.
He said disruptions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait were currently affecting between 2 million and 3 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports. At the same time, roughly 10 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products are still leaving the Middle East, with a similar volume continuing to move through the Strait of Hormuz.
China is also playing a key role in the outlook for global oil consumption. Hardy described the estimated 5 million to 6 million barrels per day gap between China’s crude oil imports in 2025 and 2026 as unsustainable, suggesting that purchases by the world’s largest oil importer could increase again in the coming months.
Available shipping data showed that China’s seaborne oil imports fell to around 7 million barrels per day in July and August, compared with more than 11 million barrels per day in February. The decline has been linked to disruptions affecting supply routes as well as weaker demand from transportation and petrochemical industries.
The outlook comes as oil markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly disruptions to major maritime routes in the Middle East. Any prolonged interruption to supply could put additional pressure on prices, while weaker consumption would increase the risk of an oversupplied market.
For energy traders and producers, the combination of slower demand growth, changing Chinese imports and continuing risks around key shipping chokepoints is expected to remain a major factor shaping oil market conditions throughout 2026.
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