Global dementia cases could more than double by 2050, researchers warn

Yesterday 19:15

By: Azzat Manal

Global dementia cases could more than double by 2050, researchers warn

The number of new dementia cases worldwide could more than double by 2050, rising from an estimated 11.4 million to 24.7 million annually, according to an international study led by researchers at the University of New South Wales in Australia. The findings highlight the growing public health challenge posed by dementia as populations age and demand for long-term medical and social care increases.

The researchers analysed data from more than 38,000 people across 18 countries. During the follow-up period, 3,001 participants developed dementia. Using these observations, the team estimated rates of new diagnoses and projected how the number of cases could change globally over the coming decades.

The study also identified differences between women and men. After accounting for age-related variations, the annual incidence rate was estimated at 10.6 new cases per 1,000 women, compared with 8.6 per 1,000 men. These figures suggest that women experience a higher rate of new dementia diagnoses, although differences in life expectancy and other population characteristics are important considerations when interpreting the results.

Economic conditions were also associated with variations in incidence. Countries classified as low- and middle-income recorded an estimated 13.6 new cases per 1,000 people annually, compared with 8.3 per 1,000 in high-income countries. The findings point to differences in population health, access to diagnosis and other factors that may influence reported rates across regions.

More than 57 million people are currently estimated to be living with dementia worldwide. That total could approach 150 million by 2050, according to projections cited in the report. Researchers stressed that the forecast of 24.7 million refers to new cases each year, not the total number of people living with the condition.

Dementia is an umbrella term for conditions that progressively affect memory, thinking, communication and the ability to carry out everyday activities. Alzheimer’s disease is its most common cause. Although age is a major risk factor, dementia is not an inevitable part of growing older, and some risk factors may be reduced through preventive measures and improved management of other health conditions.

The expected rise in cases is largely attributed to population aging, as more people live into age groups in which dementia becomes more common. Researchers say the projections underline the importance of recognising symptoms early, improving access to assessment and care, and addressing modifiable risk factors associated with cognitive decline.

The findings also raise questions about the capacity of health and social care systems to support a growing number of patients and their families. Strengthening dementia services, expanding public awareness and investing in research and prevention could help countries prepare for the anticipated increase in demand over the coming decades.