Europe enters heating season with gas stocks at historic lows

Friday 02 - 13:29

By: Azzat Manal

Europe enters heating season with gas stocks at historic lows

Europe is entering the 2026-27 heating season with underground gas storage levels at their lowest for the time of year since records began in 2011, highlighting the pressure facing the region ahead of the colder months.

Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed that EU storage facilities were around 71.5% full at the beginning of October, with roughly 809 terawatt-hours of gas in storage. Although inventories increased during September, they remained at a historically low level compared with previous years.

European countries accelerated injections during September as they sought to strengthen supplies before winter. The increase came despite elevated gas prices, which have been driven by tight global LNG markets and geopolitical disruptions affecting energy flows.

The European Commission has acknowledged that storage levels are significantly lower than in previous years, but has said the bloc is better prepared than during the 2021-2022 energy crisis. Increased LNG import capacity, more diversified supplies and lower gas consumption have strengthened the resilience of the European energy system.

The EU's gas storage rules require member states to reach a 90% filling level before winter, with flexibility allowing the target to be met between October 1 and December 1 under the current rules. The European Council has also introduced additional flexibility to account for difficult market conditions.

The supply picture has changed considerably since Europe began reducing its reliance on Russian pipeline gas following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. LNG now accounts for nearly half of the EU's gas supply, increasing the bloc's exposure to international competition for cargoes and fluctuations in global prices.

The Strait of Hormuz has added another layer of uncertainty. Disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East have affected LNG flows from the Gulf, while European buyers have increasingly competed with Asian consumers for available cargoes. US LNG exports to Europe rose in September as European buyers offered prices attractive enough to outbid some Asian demand.

Norway has become Europe's largest natural gas supplier since the sharp reduction in Russian pipeline deliveries. The country's pipeline operator said it was prepared to meet high European demand during the new gas delivery year, providing an important source of supply as the heating season begins.

Germany, one of Europe's largest gas consumers, entered the season with storage facilities significantly below the European average. Industry officials have nevertheless argued that diversified imports, including supplies from Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan, provide additional protection against shortages, although a particularly cold winter could put greater pressure on the market.

The main uncertainty now lies in winter temperatures, LNG availability and global competition for cargoes. A prolonged cold spell could increase withdrawals from storage and put further upward pressure on European gas prices, while milder weather would give the region more time to manage its inventories.