El Niño strengthens as UN warns of major global weather disruptions

Yesterday 20:00

By: Azzat Manal

El Niño strengthens as UN warns of major global weather disruptions

The El Niño climate phenomenon is intensifying and is expected to reach its peak in December, prompting renewed concern over its potential impact on temperatures, rainfall and extreme weather conditions worldwide.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a United Nations agency, said Thursday that the current El Niño event could become one of the strongest observed since at least 1950. The organization warned that its effects could extend across large parts of the world and amplify risks already associated with human-driven climate change.

According to the WMO’s latest seasonal climate update, ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to reach exceptionally high levels during October, November and December. These changes could alter atmospheric circulation and influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific region.

El Niño occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm. The resulting changes in winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall can affect climate conditions across different continents, increasing the likelihood of drought in some regions while raising the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding elsewhere.

The phenomenon generally occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and 12 months. It alternates with La Niña, its cooler counterpart, while neutral conditions can occur between the two phases.

The WMO said its latest assessment was based on a consensus among 13 leading national and international meteorological centers. The agency estimates that there is a near-100 percent probability that the current El Niño will continue through February 2027.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon has become established and is strengthening rapidly. She also noted that El Niño does not create additional heat in the climate system itself, but rather contributes to the release of heat stored in the ocean, influencing atmospheric and surface conditions.

The expected rise in Pacific sea-surface temperatures comes as the world is already experiencing the consequences of long-term global warming. Higher baseline temperatures can intensify the effects of naturally occurring climate patterns, increasing pressure on communities, ecosystems, agriculture and water resources.

The consequences of a strong El Niño can vary significantly from one region to another. Some areas may face prolonged dry conditions, while others can experience unusually heavy precipitation. Such shifts can affect crop production, water availability, infrastructure and economies that are particularly vulnerable to weather extremes.

Scientists and policymakers are therefore closely monitoring the phenomenon as it approaches its projected December peak. While El Niño is a natural climate cycle, its interaction with a warming planet remains an important factor in assessing the scale and duration of potential weather disruptions in the coming months.