El Niño reaches its strongest intensity of the new millennium

Saturday 29 August 2026 - 11:58

By: Azzat Manal

El Niño reaches its strongest intensity of the new millennium

The El Niño climate phenomenon in the Pacific has become significantly stronger in recent decades, reaching its highest intensity of the new millennium, according to climate researchers. The development could increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including droughts and floods.

El Niño is one of the major natural drivers of global weather variability. It occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific become unusually warm, disrupting atmospheric circulation and influencing rainfall and temperatures across different parts of the world.

Researchers have increasingly examined whether global warming is changing the behavior of El Niño. However, the lack of long-term observations has made it difficult to establish how the phenomenon has evolved over centuries.

To address this challenge, scientists led by researchers at the University of Michigan examined 13 coral colonies from five islands in the Galápagos. The corals provided a natural record of past ocean conditions extending across roughly the last millennium.

Chemical indicators preserved in coral skeletons can reveal historical changes in sea-surface temperatures. By analyzing variations in elements such as oxygen-18, calcium and strontium, researchers were able to reconstruct seasonal temperature fluctuations and identify periods when El Niño activity was particularly strong.

The findings indicate that exceptionally intense El Niño events have mainly occurred during the past four to five decades, while the phenomenon was generally weaker during the pre-industrial period. The researchers also found a strong relationship between El Niño intensity and average global temperatures over the longer historical record.

Scientists warn that continued warming could therefore contribute to stronger El Niño events in the future. More intense episodes could amplify associated disruptions to the global water cycle, increasing the risks of extreme rainfall, flooding and prolonged drought in vulnerable regions.

Such changes could also have consequences for public health and infrastructure. More frequent or severe floods can damage roads, buildings and water systems, while changing rainfall patterns may contribute to conditions favorable to the spread of waterborne diseases such as cholera.

El Niño is part of a broader climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which also includes La Niña. While El Niño is associated with unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, La Niña generally involves cooler-than-average waters in the same region.

The two phases can alternate every few years, producing major changes in ocean currents, atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. Their effects can extend far beyond the Pacific, influencing weather conditions across several continents.

The latest research adds to growing evidence that climate change may alter the behavior of naturally occurring climate patterns. Understanding how El Niño responds to rising global temperatures will remain crucial for improving forecasts and preparing communities for future extreme weather events.