El Niño could reach very strong intensity by the end of 2026

Thursday 03 - 11:00

By: Azzat Manal

El Niño could reach very strong intensity by the end of 2026

The El Niño climate phenomenon is strengthening across the equatorial Pacific and could reach a very strong intensity toward the end of 2026, according to the latest assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The agency also estimates that there is an almost 100% chance that the event will persist through February 2027, raising concerns about increased weather risks in several parts of the world.

El Niño is already firmly established in the equatorial Pacific, where ocean temperatures have risen significantly above normal levels. The continued warming is expected to influence global atmospheric circulation, potentially altering rainfall patterns and temperatures and increasing the likelihood of droughts, floods and heatwaves in some regions.

The WMO expects above-average temperatures across large areas of land between September and November 2026. However, the organization stresses that the effects of El Niño will not be uniform worldwide. Its consequences depend on regional climate patterns, the time of year and interactions with other atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

The strongest signals have been recorded in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Between May and July 2026, sea surface temperatures in the region were around 1.5°C above average, with the anomaly reaching approximately 2°C in July. Observations between late July and mid-August indicated that temperatures in some areas were between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above normal.

The warming is also particularly pronounced below the ocean surface. In some locations, subsurface temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August, providing further evidence that the current El Niño event is gaining strength.

El Niño typically develops every two to seven years and occurs when unusually warm surface waters spread across parts of the equatorial Pacific. This oceanic shift can disrupt atmospheric circulation and influence weather conditions thousands of kilometres away.

Previous strong El Niño events have produced very different consequences depending on the region. Parts of the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia and Australia have experienced heightened risks of drought and wildfires during some episodes, while other areas have faced unusually heavy rainfall or disruptions to seasonal monsoon patterns. U.S. climate authorities have identified seven events since 1950 as very strong, with the 1982–1983 episode among the most intense on record.

The current event is unfolding against the backdrop of human-driven climate change, which is already increasing global temperatures and intensifying certain weather extremes. The combination of a strong El Niño and a warmer planet could amplify some impacts, although scientists caution against assuming that a stronger El Niño will automatically produce more severe conditions everywhere.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has warned that the strengthening phenomenon could add pressure to communities and economies already dealing with droughts, floods and other climate-related hazards. The situation is also being closely monitored by international organizations as governments prepare for potentially disruptive weather conditions.

The effects could extend well into 2027. El Niño events can contribute to the transfer of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, potentially keeping global temperatures elevated even after the phenomenon begins to weaken. This has led some climate scientists to closely monitor the possibility that 2027 could become another exceptionally warm year.

The record heat observed in recent years highlights the significance of the current development. With the probability of El Niño continuing into early 2027 now considered extremely high, meteorological agencies are urging governments and vulnerable communities to strengthen early-warning systems, climate monitoring and preparedness measures.