El Niño 2026: WMO Warns Of Rising Heatwaves And Growing Climate Risks

Monday 03 - 16:30

By: Azzat Manal

El Niño 2026: WMO Warns Of Rising Heatwaves And Growing Climate Risks

The possible return of a strong El Niño episode in 2026 could intensify global climate disruptions, according to the latest seasonal forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Scientists warn that the combination of oceanic and atmospheric changes may contribute to higher temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and an increased risk of extreme weather events in several regions around the world.

The WMO explained that El Niño is developing in an already fragile climate context, marked by unusually warm ocean temperatures worldwide. The expected positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole and above-average temperatures in the tropical Atlantic could further influence atmospheric circulation and amplify climate anomalies.

Forecast models suggest that sea surface temperature anomalies in key areas of the equatorial Pacific could reach exceptionally high levels between August and October, indicating a potentially intense El Niño event. Such conditions are likely to affect weather patterns across continents and increase pressure on vulnerable regions.

Many parts of the world are expected to experience above-average temperatures, including Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, South Asia, East Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, parts of South America and New Zealand.

The rise in temperatures could strengthen heatwaves, worsen water shortages and create additional challenges for agriculture, energy systems and public health. Communities already facing climate stress may experience greater risks due to prolonged periods of extreme heat and limited water resources.

Rainfall patterns are also expected to become more irregular. Some areas, including parts of the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, southern Europe, southern South America and western North America, could receive higher-than-normal precipitation. Meanwhile, regions such as South Asia, southern and eastern Australia, parts of Central America, the Caribbean and northern Europe may face rainfall deficits.

These contrasting conditions could increase the likelihood of droughts, floods and landslides depending on local circumstances. The impact of El Niño extends beyond weather patterns, affecting food security, agricultural production, water management and essential infrastructure.

United Nations officials have stressed the importance of early preparation. UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted that El Niño adds further pressure to a planet already affected by human-driven climate change, calling for stronger efforts to accelerate the transition toward cleaner energy sources.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that climate forecasts must be used as practical tools to help governments, communities and businesses prepare before disasters occur. Early warning systems and preventive measures remain essential to reducing the impact of extreme weather events.

El Niño is a natural phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and twelve months. It usually reaches its strongest intensity between November and February.

Although the term “super El Niño” is often used in public discussions, it does not represent an official scientific category. Researchers continue to monitor the phenomenon closely in order to better understand its potential consequences.

As global temperatures continue to rise, the interaction between natural climate cycles such as El Niño and long-term warming trends highlights the growing need for international cooperation, climate adaptation strategies and stronger environmental protection measures.