Climate warming poses greater heat risks for older people than previously estimated
Climate change could expose older adults to dangerous heat far more frequently than previously projected, according to a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health.
Researchers from Stanford University examined how rising global temperatures could affect people aged over 60 through the end of the century. Their findings suggest that previous assessments may have underestimated the risks faced by older populations because they relied partly on data derived from younger and healthier individuals.
The study is particularly relevant as parts of Europe and North America experience increasingly intense heatwaves. Researchers focused on the concept of wet-bulb temperature, which combines air temperature with humidity to provide a better indication of the conditions that can become dangerous for the human body.
High humidity can significantly increase the health risks associated with heat because it makes it harder for the body to cool itself through sweating. However, traditional estimates of dangerous wet-bulb temperatures have often been based on experiments involving young, healthy people.
More recent research involving older adults indicates that their ability to tolerate extreme heat can be considerably lower. Age-related changes in the body's ability to regulate temperature, combined with existing vulnerabilities, can make older people particularly susceptible during prolonged periods of extreme heat.
By incorporating these newer findings into climate models that also account for projected population ageing, the researchers concluded that dangerous heat could affect significantly more people, across larger areas and for longer periods than earlier estimates suggested.
Under one scenario in which global average temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, the models indicate that around 22% of people aged over 60 could be exposed to dangerous heat for more than one month each year.
The researchers stressed that the precise projections depend on methodological assumptions and different climate scenarios. Nevertheless, the findings point to a growing challenge for countries with ageing populations and limited resources for protecting vulnerable people from extreme temperatures.
The risks are expected to be particularly serious in communities where access to air conditioning, reliable electricity, cooling centers and other forms of protection remains limited.
The study therefore calls for greater investment in measures that can help older people cope with extreme heat, while emphasizing that reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains essential to limiting the long-term increase in temperatures.
As climate change and population ageing progress simultaneously, protecting older adults from extreme heat is likely to become an increasingly important public health priority.
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