Brent oil could reach $120 if Middle East tensions continue, Barclays warns

Friday 06 March 2026 - 20:45

Global oil markets could experience a sharp rise in prices if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, according to a recent assessment by analysts at Barclays.

The British bank warned that the benchmark crude price Brent Crude could potentially climb to around $120 per barrel if the current regional conflict continues for several more weeks.

Rising geopolitical risks

The warning comes amid escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which have significantly disrupted energy markets and raised concerns about global supply stability.

Analysts say the situation has already affected the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most strategically important maritime routes for global energy shipments. The narrow waterway handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports.

Shipping activity in the strait has been reduced after Iran warned that vessels crossing the area could face military action. As a result, tanker movements have slowed and energy traders are closely monitoring the evolving situation.

Oil prices already rising

Oil markets have reacted quickly to the heightened uncertainty. Futures linked to Brent crude have risen significantly, with prices trading close to $94 per barrel during recent sessions.

The American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, has also climbed, reflecting investor concerns about potential supply shortages.

According to Barclays analysts, approximately 85 million barrels of crude are currently stranded on tankers in the Gulf region due to shipping disruptions linked to the conflict.

Market outlook

Despite concerns earlier in the year about weaker demand and potential oversupply, analysts now believe the fundamentals of the oil market may be stronger than expected.

Barclays noted that price risks remain tilted upward as long as geopolitical uncertainty persists. Any prolonged disruption to shipping routes or production facilities in the Middle East could further tighten global supply.

Energy experts warn that continued instability in the region may trigger broader economic consequences, affecting fuel prices, transportation costs, and inflation worldwide.