Brazil: Lula's Lead Narrowed by Flavio Bolsonaro as Presidential Election Approaches

Wednesday 02 September 2026 - 16:02

With just weeks to go before the presidential election in October, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro is significantly shrinking. According to a Quaest poll conducted in late August to early September, the two candidates are now neck and neck in a potential runoff scenario.

A Lead Reduced to Just One Point

The Brazilian presidential campaign is entering a particularly heated phase. In a runoff simulation conducted by the Quaest institute for Globo, Lula would garner 42% of the votes compared to 41% for Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

The result reflects a dramatic tightening of the gap between the two main contenders. In the previous Quaest poll published on August 14, the incumbent president still held a three-point lead, with 43% of voter intentions against 40% for Flavio Bolsonaro.

With a margin of error of two points, the two candidates find themselves in a situation of statistical near-equality.

Lula Remains Ahead in First Round

However, the first-round scenario remains more favorable for the Brazilian president. Lula would receive 37% of voter intentions, compared to 30% for Flavio Bolsonaro.

Behind them, psychiatrist and writer Augusto Cury would collect 10% of the votes, while Renan Santos would reach 3%. These figures particularly confirm Cury's rise, as he gradually establishes himself among the main candidates in the race.

The Quaest institute is thus the third major polling organization this week to place Augusto Cury in third position. His media visibility and strong presence on social media seem to contribute to bolstering his candidacy.

An Open Presidential Race

The Brazilian electoral system provides for a runoff when no candidate surpasses 50% of valid votes in the first round. In this configuration, the two leading candidates face off in a new vote.

The current balance of power suggests a particularly tight campaign. While Lula maintains a lead in the first round, his advantage nearly disappears when considering a direct confrontation with Flavio Bolsonaro.

This dynamic could increase the importance of candidates capable of capturing a portion of the electorate situated outside the two main political camps.

A Poll Conducted at the Start of the Final Stretch

For this survey, Quaest interviewed 2,004 people between August 30 and September 1. The margin of error is estimated at two percentage points.

As the October election approaches, upcoming polls will be scrutinized closely. The tightening race between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro already indicates a competition that could remain uncertain until the final weeks of the campaign.