BMJ Public Health retracts disputed study on excess deaths after Covid-19

Wednesday 12 - 18:45

By: Sahili Aya

BMJ Public Health retracts disputed study on excess deaths after Covid-19

A scientific paper examining excess mortality during the years following the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic has been retracted by BMJ Public Health, two years after its publication.

The decision was announced Wednesday by the BMJ Group, which said the 2024 study contained elements that could contribute to misinformation about the possible causes of excess deaths and was based on a limited amount of original research.

The withdrawal represents the strongest form of editorial action available to a scientific journal and places the study's findings outside the body of research that the publication can continue to stand behind.

Study had attracted attention from vaccine-sceptic outlets

Published in 2024, the paper examined excess mortality in several parts of the world and reported that death rates had remained unusually high in the years following the most acute phase of the pandemic.

Although the study did not establish that Covid-19 vaccination caused excess deaths, its wording prompted controversy. Some vaccine-sceptic websites and publications cited the paper as evidence for a direct relationship between vaccination and subsequent mortality.

The authors had questioned why excess mortality remained elevated despite the introduction of lockdown measures and Covid-19 vaccines. They called for governments and institutions to release more detailed data that could help investigate the possible contribution of different factors.

That wording was subsequently criticized for potentially encouraging conclusions that the research itself had not demonstrated.

Methodology also came under scrutiny

Questions were also raised about the methodology used to estimate excess mortality.

The controversy prompted the BMJ Group to investigate the paper, while the Princess Máxima Center for Pediatric Oncology, which is affiliated with three of the four authors, conducted its own review.

BMJ Public Health had previously added a warning encouraging readers to approach the study cautiously. The latest decision goes further, with the publisher concluding that the paper should be removed from the journal's scientific record.

Two authors support the retraction

The BMJ Group said the decision to retract the study is supported by two of its four authors, as well as by the Princess Máxima Center.

The publisher's explanation focuses on the paper's treatment of potential explanations for excess mortality and the limited amount of original research on which it was based.

The case illustrates the role of post-publication scrutiny in scientific publishing. Research can remain under review after publication when concerns emerge about its methodology, interpretation or potential to mislead readers.

Retraction does not settle the broader question of excess mortality

The withdrawal of the paper does not mean that the broader scientific question of excess mortality after the Covid-19 pandemic has been resolved.

Researchers continue to examine the multiple factors that can influence mortality following a major health crisis, including the direct effects of infection, disruptions to healthcare, demographic changes and other causes.

What the retraction establishes is narrower: this particular study is no longer considered reliable enough by its publisher to remain part of the journal's published scientific record.

The episode also highlights the importance of distinguishing between what a study actually demonstrates and conclusions subsequently drawn from it, particularly on highly polarized public-health issues.